US-Israeli-Arab war alliance crumbles as united, resilient Iran solidifies strategic leverage

By Press TV Strategic Analysis Desk

By any conventional measure, the no-holds-barred military and economic aggression unleashed by the United States, the Israeli regime, and some of their regional allies should have brought the Islamic Republic of Iran to its knees by now.

Massive aerial campaigns, a naval siege, relentless cyberattacks, and a sophisticated propaganda apparatus were all deployed with a single objective: force Iran into submission.

Yet more than two months into this imposed war, the opposite has happened. The current situation has become far more complicated for the aggressor than for the defender.

Time is now slipping away from the aggressor. Difficult conditions await the alliance that sought to subdue the Islamic Republic, which has emerged not as a defeated party but as a new regional power holding significant strategic leverage.

So, why is this war becoming increasingly costly for the United States, the Israeli regime, and their Persian Gulf partners, and how Iran's firm and legitimate control over the Strait of Hormuz – combined with a resilient population and a united leadership – has placed Tehran in a position of enduring advantage.

Israel's existential nightmare

For the Israeli regime, the war against the Islamic Republic was supposed to be a decisive blow against its most formidable adversary. Instead, it has turned into a multiplying and irreversible crisis on every front for the genocidal regime and its backers.

Iran's strategic ascent – The most profound concern for the regime is not military defeat in the traditional sense; it is Iran's continuing strategic rise as a direct consequence of the war.

Tehran has already forced the United States to accept several of its terms, a diplomatic achievement that will exponentially elevate Iran's standing in the region and the world.

For a regime built on the presumption of Iranian containment, the emergence of a diplomatically triumphant, militarily dominant Iran is an existential horror.

Humiliation in Southern Lebanon – While the world focused on theatrics, Hezbollah has been quietly dismantling Israeli military superiority using drones so simple and inexpensive that they defy conventional countermeasures.

Daily targeted strikes on regime equipment, tanks, and troop concentrations have rendered southern Lebanon a no-go zone for Israeli occupying forces.

More terrifying for Tel Aviv is the prospect of this asymmetric warfare model spreading to Gaza and the occupied West Bank, which many military pundits see as a nightmare scenario that would transform the entire Palestinian theater.

Internal political collapse – The failure to achieve declared war objectives has triggered unprecedented internal pressures on Benjamin Netanyahu's embattled regime.  

Rivals within Israel's fractious political system are circling, capitalizing on the disconnect between wartime promises and battlefield realities, with Netanyahu’s political opponents forming a coalition to bring down his regime.

Far from weakening the Islamic Republic of Iran, the imposed war has strengthened both Tehran and the resistance front, leaving regime leaders with no credible exit strategy.

Iran's unseen arsenal – The recent 40-day war showcased only a fraction of Iran's military capabilities. What remains undisclosed – new missile systems, advanced drones, cyberwarfare tools, and asymmetric naval tactics – promises blows that are far heavier than those inflicted during the Ramadan War. This uncertainty alone acts as a powerful deterrent.

The collapse of normalization – The Abraham Accords, once hailed by Western pundits as a transformative realignment of the Arab-Israeli relationship, have been quietly forgotten.

Persian Gulf Arab states, watching Iran's demonstrated power and the American relative impotence, have dramatically cooled their embrace of Tel Aviv. Iran's enhanced regional role has made normalization a political liability rather than a diplomatic achievement.

The Yemeni wildcard – Should the war expand, the Ansarullah front at Bab al-Mandab stands ready to activate, as they have already warned. A simultaneous blockade of the Red Sea would choke Israeli and Western shipping through the Suez Canal, adding catastrophic economic pressure to an already bleeding enemy alliance.

America's unraveling hegemony

For the United States, the war against Iran was never merely about Tehran. It was a message to Moscow, Beijing, and the rest of the world that American power remained unchallengeable. That message has backfired catastrophically.

The credibility collapse – America's threats have become hollow. When the world's so-called “superpower” cannot defeat a regional power after years of full-scale military and economic warfare, every rival takes note. Russia and China are already recalibrating their strategies, not in fear of Washington, but in assessment of its staggering decline.

The European abandonment – Former European allies, watching America's disastrous failure against Iran, are rapidly rethinking their transatlantic commitments, as evidenced by their refusal to join the American alliance to open the Strait of Hormuz.

If the United States cannot protect its own interests in the Persian Gulf, why should European nations stake their security on American guarantees? The erosion of America's international role is no longer a prediction but an unfolding and vivid reality.

Domestic political freefall – The political consequences for the Republican Party, and for Trump personally, are equally devastating. A failed war, undisclosed casualties, and no clear victory to claim have set the stage for a prolonged Republican collapse in the American political landscape, especially in the wake of the November midterms.

Should Democrats control both the Senate and the House in the upcoming midterms, impeachment proceedings – or worse, criminal charges – await a president who promised victory in the war against Iran but came out as a defeated party.

Global economic blowback – The recent war has worsened global economic conditions like never before, and the world rightly blames the United States for it.

Inflation, supply chain disruptions, and energy price volatility – all exacerbated by the unprovoked American aggression – have turned Washington into a global villain. Even traditional allies are reluctant to absorb economic pain for a war they never endorsed.

Iran's greater resilience – Iran has proven more resilient to economic siege than the United States itself. The longer the naval blockade continues, the more the American position weakens, and every passing day forces Washington to accept additional Iranian terms for a ceasefire. The siege is not breaking Iran, but it is definitely breaking America's will.

Unpredictable warfare – If there is no agreement to end the war permanently, Iran's next move will be interesting. The potential opening of the Bab al-Mandab front alone would transform global shipping. Combined with new tactics and weapons from Iran and its resistance allies, the United States faces a future war for which it hasn’t prepared.

A shrinking window – The calendar is not America's friend as this war has shown. A summit with China's President Xi Jinping in two weeks, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the November midterm elections all demand Washington's attention. Each passing event reduces the political space for continued war. Time is clearly not on the American side.

The Persian Gulf realignment – Should Iran's terms for ending the imposed war ultimately prevail, it would constitute an official declaration of American defeat to the Arab Persian Gulf states – Washington's most trusted regional allies.

Such an outcome would trigger an immediate and profound reconsideration of every security treaty, every basing agreement, and every intelligence-sharing arrangement.

The United States would not merely lose a war, but it would lose an entire region.

Persian Gulf's quiet panic

America's loyal Arab allies in the Persian Gulf region face their own set of nightmares, largely unspoken in public but intensely debated in the power corridors of the region.

Their complicity in the recent war of aggression against Iran is no longer a secret, and they will have to pay a price for their betrayal as neighbors.

An invincible neighbor – The prospect of Iran emerging from this war as an invincible superpower on their borders terrifies the Persian Gulf rulers. They understand that future relations with Tehran will require concessions far beyond anything previously contemplated. Iran's upper hand in the region is no longer theoretical, but it is operational.

Internal Persian Gulf divisions – The unity of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council is cracking and the sound is loud. Different countries have different interests in engaging with Iran.

The UAE, in particular, faces potential internal schisms over whether to accommodate or confront Tehran. The war has exposed fault lines that may never fully heal.

Economic vulnerability – The war's severe repercussions on the fragile and heavily dependent economies of Persian Gulf states are already visible.

Real estate bubbles are popping, tourism has collapsed, and foreign investment is fleeing. The Persian Gulf's "glass economies" –built on illusions of stability – are finally shattering.

Fear of Revolution – Finally, Persian Gulf rulers fear their own populations more than anything else. The weakness of their filthy rich and unpopular regimes – their excessive reliance on American and Israeli protection – has been exposed.

People across the Arab world are asking: if your American ally cannot defend itself against Iran, how can it defend us? The potential for renewed uprisings haunts every Persian Gulf capital, far worse than the Arab Spring many years ago.

Why Iran holds the upper hand

Despite natural and legitimate concerns about economic hardships, especially rising inflation, and the toll of prolonged war, Iran operates from a position of relative strength compared to its enemies, including the US. Several factors explain this asymmetry.

Decisive leadership – Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has guided the country through the harshest conditions of full-scale war without fracture.

All political forces have consolidated behind his wise strategies. There has been no dissent in implementing directives – a unity that confounds enemy expectations of internal collapse.

Popular consensus – The absolute majority of Iranians accept a simple logic: the enemy is the aggressor, its aim is plunder and partition, and resistance is the only honorable path.

This consensus has created unprecedented national unity in the country, providing immense political capital for military and civilian decision-makers.

Readiness for sacrifice – Millions of Iranians today stand ready to defend their country under the banner of the "Sacrifice for Iran" (Janfada) campaign. The campaign has already registered over 31 million Iranians from different walks of life.

This readiness to defend the homeland in the face of enemy aggression transforms abstract patriotism into concrete logistical and human support for the war effort.

Asymmetric mastery – Iran has proven its capability in asymmetric warfare and is now more prepared than its enemies for any future military confrontation.   

Each engagement teaches new lessons and each lesson strengthens Iranian doctrine.

No immediate political pressure – Iran faces no urgent political deadlines. No decisive elections, no leadership transitions, no external events forcing hasty decisions.

This luxury of time – denied to the US and Israel – gives Tehran a strategic advantage.

Unprecedented national confidence – The Iranian people have developed a historical self-confidence born of surviving impossible odds. This confidence emboldens the armed forces, who know they fight with genuine popular backing against a universally hated enemy.

The Strait of Hormuz – Iran's ultimate lever

At the heart of Iran's strategic advantage lies a narrow waterway, situated between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman – the Strait of Hormuz.

Understanding and preserving the strategic value of this critical chokepoint, and maintaining Iranian management over it, remains the demand of the entire nation and a red line in any agreement leading to the permanent end of the imposed war.

It is not merely a geographical feature. It is the key to realizing many of Iran's historical demands: the lifting or neutralizing of sanctions, the freeing of blocked Iranian assets, and the restoration of Iran's rightful economic standing.

Every day that Iran maintains control over this passage – through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass daily – is a day that the enemy's economic warfare strategy fails.

Iran will not back down from this position. The country’s leadership has been explicit: preserving the Strait and Iranian sovereignty over its management are non-negotiable.

As the Leader of the Islamic Revolution recently emphasized, the Iranian people consider every national capacity – from nanotechnology to missile technology, from nuclear advancements to industrial infrastructure – as national capital to be defended like the country's land, sea, and air borders.

The Strait of Hormuz is the maritime equivalent of those borders. It will be defended with the same resolve by 90 million Iranians, backed by the armed forces.

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