Military analyst challenges Western estimates, says Iran has over 17,000 missiles

A Brazil-based independent military affairs analyst has challenged Western intelligence estimates on Iran’s missile arsenal, saying the Islamic Republic possesses more than 17,000 ballistic and cruise missiles as per her estimates.

Patricia Marins, in a post on X, said during the 12-day war last year, she estimated Iran’s total stockpile was approximately 20,000 missiles, including 7,000 to 8,000 ballistic missiles and 12,000 to 13,000 cruise missiles, counting both active units and reserves.

Marins stated that Iran began mass-producing ballistic missiles in the early 1990s with the Shahab-2, manufactured for about 15 years, followed by the Shahab-3 from 2004 to 2008.

While these early models needed more work in terms of high precision, Iran launched a major refurbishment program in 2015 to upgrade guidance systems and warheads, with thousands of older missiles still held in reserve.

“If we assume a conservative average production rate of roughly 100 units per model per year… that alone would give Iran, over the last 15 years, an arsenal exceeding 17,000 missiles,” Marins said.

She noted that by 2010, Iran was already producing about 12 missile models. From 2015 onward, at least 8 to 12 models with ranges over 1,000 km were in production.

Cruise missiles like the Soumar and Meshkat, as well as solid-fuel ballistic missiles such as the Emad and Sejjil, now exceed 2,000 km in range, sufficient to reach the occupied territories.

Marins dismissed Western think tank estimates claiming Iran had only 2,500 missiles as of February, calling them illogical. She pointed out that Russia produces around 2,500 precision missiles annually while fighting a full-scale war in Ukraine.

“There is simply no logic in claiming that Iran, after more than 30 years of dedicated missile production with multiple active lines, had only 2,500 missiles in stockpile,” she said.

According to Marins, Iran has built an entire defense ecosystem of over 300 companies dedicated to the missile sector, supported by another 6,500 knowledge based companies across various defense areas.

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