In Kentucky primary, it's 'America First' vs. 'Israel First' as Trump backs Massie's pro-war rival

By José Niño

The opening bell has rung in what may be the most consequential Republican primary of 2026, and the combatants could not be more different.

In one corner stands Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the libertarian engineer and eight-term congressman who has made a career of defying party leadership and voting his conscience regardless of political cost.

In the other corner stands Ed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL captain backed by President Donald Trump and armed with over $5.7 million from the pro-Israel lobby, according to Track AIPAC.

The prize is Kentucky's 4th Congressional District. The stakes are nothing less than the future direction of Republican foreign policy.

Gallrein is a fifth-generation farmer from Shelby County and a 30-year military veteran who served multiple deployments with SEAL Team Six. He ran unsuccessfully for Kentucky's 7th Senate district in 2024 before Trump recruited him to take on Massie.

On October 17, 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social that Gallrein was a "WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN," while calling Massie "a totally ineffective LOSER."

Gallrein entered the race with Trump's backing before he had even officially filed. His candidacy exists for one purpose: to remove one of Congress's most persistent critics of American wars abroad, including against Iran, and unconditional support for Israel.

The foreign policy contrast between the two men is stark enough to define the entire race. When the US-Israel war was launched in February 2026, Gallrein enthusiastically threw himself behind it with enthusiasm.

Speaking at Trump's March 2026 rally in Hebron, Kentucky, Gallrein branded Massie's opposition "unforgivable," stating: "He's even leading the Democrats to block the president while we are engaged in combat actions to save our nation and the world from the Iranians [getting] a nuclear weapon, while we have troops in harm's way. Unforgivable."

Massie has taken the opposite position with equal force. He co-sponsored a War Powers Resolution with Democratic Representative Ro Khanna to halt unauthorized attacks, writing: "Congress has the sole power to declare war against Iran. The ongoing war between Israel and Iran is not our war."

He has said publicly that "we should end all US military aid to Israel now" and was the only Republican to boycott Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 2024 address to Congress.

He has denounced AIPAC for using "babysitters" to manage Republican members of Congress and conducted a poll on X asking whether AIPAC should register as a foreign agent, with 94.9% of his followers saying yes.

The money flooding into this race tells its own story. The primary vehicle for pro-Israel spending is MAGA KY, a super PAC managed by Trump-aligned consultant Chris LaCivita and funded almost entirely by three Jewish billionaires, none of whom are from Kentucky.

Paul Singer, the New York hedge fund manager and prominent pro-Israel Republican donor, gave $1 million. Miriam Adelson, the casino mogul and widow of Sheldon Adelson, contributed $750,000 through Preserve America PAC. John Paulson, the Florida hedge fund manager and former Trump economic adviser, added $250,000. MAGA KY spent $1.56 million in just 38 days on television and digital advertisements opposing Massie.

Massie punched back publicly, writing: "Three billionaires from New York City and Las Vegas have funded a superPAC deceptively named Kentucky MAGA to run millions of dollars of negative ads against me because I vote against foreign aid for Israel and needless wars in the Middle East. Kentuckians aren't falling for it."

Journalist Glenn Greenwald noted on X that all three donors are "big GOP donors for whom Israel is a top cause."

The Republican Jewish Coalition has been an even larger presence in the fight. The RJC Victory Fund grew its ad buy to $3.5 million in independent expenditures, running attack ads highlighting Massie's record of breaking with Trump on Israel and the Iran war.

One ad accused Massie of "standing with Iran and radical leftists in Congress."

According to Track AIPAC, the total Israel lobby investment in Gallrein's race has reached $5,708,080, with $5,645,682 coming from independent expenditures. The race has effectively become a financial intervention by pro-Israel interests seeking to remove one of AIPAC's most vocal congressional critics.

Yet the pro-Israel machine is fighting against powerful currents in American public opinion. The most comprehensive recent data comes from the Pew Research Center, which surveyed 3,507 US adults between March 23 and 29, 2026, during the height of joint US-Israel military aggression against Iran. Sixty percent of all American adults now hold an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 53 percent in 2025.

Among Republicans overall, 41 percent have an unfavorable view. But among Republicans ages 18 to 49, that figure reaches 57 percent unfavorable, up from 50 percent in 2025. Among Republicans 50 and older, roughly three in four still view Israel favorably.

The generational fracture within the Republican Party has become as sharp as it is among Democrats. A November 2025 Big Data Poll found only 29.1 percent of US voters side with Israel overall, a decline from the 54 percent sympathy peak measured after October 7, 2023.

Among young Republicans aged 18 to 29, the same poll found 33.4 percent prefer Palestine versus 27.9 percent supporting Israel – a historic reversal. And 52.9 percent of America First Republicans aged 18 to 29 now describe Israel's Gaza attacks as "genocide," while only 29.2 percent reject the characterization.

A December 2025 IMEU/YouGov poll of Republican voters revealed a striking Fox News variable. Netanyahu's net approval among Republicans who regularly watch Fox News stands at plus 49. Among non-Fox News Republican viewers, that figure drops to plus 11 – a 38-point shift. Among Republicans under 45 who do not regularly watch Fox News, Netanyahu's net approval drops to minus 8.

Traditional conservative media infrastructure is still holding older Republicans in line with pro-Israel positions, but younger Republicans consuming news through alternative channels are breaking sharply away.

The December 2025 IMEU/YouGov poll found strong policy implications for this shift. 51 percent of Republicans under 45 said they would prefer to support candidates who would reduce US aid to Israel. 53 percent said the US should not renew the annual aid commitment to Israel. 52 percent of Republicans overall and 59 percent of Republicans under 45 would prefer a primary nominee who prioritizes lower prices for Americans over funding Israel.

Just 23 percent of Republicans under 45 and 31 percent of Republicans overall prefer a nominee who supports unconditional funding for Israel. 48 percent of Republicans agreed that "legitimate criticism of Israel that should be protected under free speech is too often accused of being antisemitic," while only 23 percent disagreed.

This election marks the first major battle between the emerging “America First” wing and the increasingly embattled “Israel First” wing of the Republican Party. The outcome will serve as a barometer for the level of influence Trump still commands within the GOP, an influence that has been challenged by the unpopular war against Iran.

Should Massie prevail despite Trump's endorsement of his opponent and despite over $5.7 million in pro-Israel spending, it will signal not only the limits of Trump's power within his own party but the viability of future candidates running on unapologetic “America First” platforms to challenge the pro-Israel consensus.

The May 19 primary will determine whether billions in lobbying money can override the emerging will of Republican voters, or whether the structural shift in American political culture has finally reached the point where candidates can defy the Israel lobby and survive.

Jose Nino is a freelance writer and political analyst based in the US.

(The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Press TV.)

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