Trump ensnared by his own contradictions as Iran dictates new strategic terms: Ex-Pentagon analyst

By Alireza Kamandi

F. Michael Maloof, a former security policy analyst in the office of the US Secretary of War (formerly Defense), says US President Donald Trump has been trapped by his own contradictions and a strategic landscape in which Iran decisively dictates the terms.

In an interview with the Press TV website, he dissected Trump’s threats against Iran and subsequent retreats, noting that the US president’s claim that the retreats came at the request of Arab states in the Persian Gulf is a fabrication.

“From everyone I have spoken with in the region, Trump never consulted the Persian Gulf leaders,” he said, adding that the US president is genuinely hesitant to start another war of aggression against Iran but is under intense pressure from Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu.

The idea that Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two countries currently at odds with each other, would jointly ask for a delay is “nonsensical,” Maloof stated, adding that the latest retreat after threatening military action is “another Trump fabrication.”

He, however, emphasized that if Trump does not act, Netanyahu will, adding that the Israeli premier promised “regime change” in Iran, but failed to achieve that goal and that his political survival depends on it.

“Before the war of aggression, the Strait of Hormuz was open. Now it’s a restriction for both sides,” he stated. “The current stalemate is worse than before it started.”

Asked what new card Trump might play in the event of a fresh round of aggression, Maloof appeared skeptical that any viable option exists. “Trump has never had a coherent strategic outline. How does he intend to reach Iran’s nuclear materials hundreds of meters underground?”

A frontal war, he said, was met with Iran’s asymmetric capabilities – striking radar systems, air bases in the Persian Gulf countries, and refueling aircraft, inflicting tremendous financial losses on the US. If Israel becomes involved and targets Iranian infrastructure again, he noted, the consequences would be catastrophic for the entire region.

“The Persian Gulf states’ desalination plants would be hit. Those countries would become uninhabitable. Israeli desalination plants would also be targeted, leading to a shutdown,” he said.

Domestically, Maloof noticed that American public opinion is firmly against another war.

“It has doubled our own prices for fuel, food, and fertilizer. Trump is a billionaire; he doesn’t have to worry about the budget, but he is affecting all of us,” he remarked, adding that Iran is running a war of attrition.

“Time does not matter to Iran, but it does to Trump because of the coming elections. He will lose power and control in the November elections. He thinks everything is like an on-and-off switch, but he has no idea how to end this game.”

Maloof noted that the US has a very limited window. “America has fired a great number of its munitions, sending much to Ukraine. Stockpiles are depleted. Tomahawks and long-range missiles are extremely expensive and limited, and some weapons systems require years to rebuild.”

US regional bases are also vulnerable, and Iran has already demonstrated it can hit them, so Washington would have to rely on naval resources, and they need replenishment, he said.

“Now summer heat is approaching, which will impact war-fighting capabilities. The longer Iran draws this out, the more disadvantages accumulate for the US,” the analyst asserted.

When asked whether Iran could enforce a final-stage blockade by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Maloof was unequivocal.

“Certainly, it is an option. It would crush over 90 percent of the world economy and lead to depression. Yemen would assist Iran,” he stated, commending Tehran’s calculated and measured approach so far, and adding that it still holds substantial resources in reserve, including hypersonic missiles and drones.

“The more ships the US deploys in the region, the more vulnerable it becomes. There is no match between what Iran offers and what the US insists upon. I don’t know what Trump is talking about in terms of acceptance,” he told the Press TV website.

Regarding a recent US Senate resolution to curb Trump’s war powers, Maloof stated that while there is Republican dissatisfaction and total Democratic opposition to this unprovoked and illegal war, the resolution will go nowhere.

“It has to be signed by the president, and he will veto it. They don’t have the two-thirds votes to override,” he asserted.

Looking ahead to Trump’s political future once the war’s dust settles, he predicted the aggression will not end before Trump’s term does.

“The Iran war has cost him politically and militarily. He has lost influence across the Global South. He thought it could be like Venezuela, just go in and run. Instead, Trump has demonstrated the limits of US power. The Chinese have learned that if they want to take Taiwan, the US will do nothing. America cannot wage a third world war, and it will get no help from Europeans,” he said.

“The policeman of the world is no longer the US. Trump has left himself totally vulnerable. He has lost all credibility as a result of this war. Iran has probably taught him the lessons he refused to learn from the rest of the Middle East.”

Press TV’s website can also be accessed at the following alternate addresses:

www.presstv.ir