As Iran, Russia conclude drill, ex-US Army officer warns of deadly surprises for Americans

A joint naval exercise between Iran and Russia has concluded with the ceremonial farewell of the Russian helicopter carrier Stoysky, marking the end of several days of coordinated maritime operations in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean.

Iranian military officials said the exercise was designed to strengthen maritime security, develop naval diplomacy, and expand practical operational collaboration between the two countries’ naval forces.

The drill included complex maneuvers, joint navigation exercises, and coordination between surface vessels and aviation units, with Iranian and Russian officials emphasizing the continuity of shared training and operational exchange.

The exercise comes amid ongoing tensions in the region, where an aggressive US military buildup and threats against Iran have escalated concerns of potential confrontation.

Former US Army officer and military analyst Stanislav Krapivnik provided a detailed analysis of Iran’s military preparedness and the ongoing integration of foreign support on Sanchez Effect.

Rick Sanchez, host of 'Journalistically Speaking' on the program, formerly seen on CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, Univision and RT, dives into the potential conflict map between Iran and the US.

“As Washington is basically camping out right at Iran’s front door with a huge fleet, and threats are flying around like confetti, they’re attempting to hash things out, but what if those talks go sideways?” Sanchez says on his program.

“Trump keeps saying it’ll be a bad day for Tehran if things escalate, but will it really? According to our guest military expert, the answer is yes – but not just for Tehran.”  

Watch all that in the following threads: 

In his analysis, Krapivnik highlighted that both Russia and China are actively preparing to support Iran in the event of a military confrontation with the United States or Israel.

“Russia and China are already sending signals by planning joint drills in Iran,” Krapivnik said. “For Russia, Iran is the gateway to the Caucasus and Central Asia; while for China, it opens the doors to Central Asia and beyond. They’re not about to let Iran crumble.”

Krapivnik noted that Iran’s previous military operations, including the 12-day war last year, were deliberately limited.

“Iran didn’t go all out then – it was hitting military bases, avoiding populated areas. But if this now escalates into full-blown war, it’s a very different story. Israel is tiny, and most people live in a few big cities, so missing a target would be nearly impossible. No matter where the bombs land, they’re bound to hit someone.”

Krapivnik emphasized that a central focus of Russia and China’s involvement is the development of an integrated air defense system in Iran.

“Iran is presenting for both Russia and China a platform of integration where they may be getting battle tested,” he explained.

“Russia has developed for Iran, in a very quick order, an integrated air defense shield, something Iran didn’t have at first. Iran had S-300s, it had S-200s. The older systems, or the S-60 systems, which by the way still work quite well against Tomahawks, when the Tomahawks are going to actually explode within the system.”

He described the multi-layered nature of the air defense network.

“An integrated air umbrella is a system, if it’s fully integrated. You have on the strategic level where you can start picking up and possibly intercepting enemy targets outside of the country whose territory you’re defending.

“Then you have an inner layer where you’re starting to defend on a strategic level inside that country. Then you have on a battle theater level, then you have on a localized level, and then you have pinpoint defense.”

“The Panther is on a localized level. The IGLA, or the shoulder-fired MANPADs — those are spot defense. That’s the last line of defense. If something has gotten all the way through, or it lifted up somewhere very close so it’s within your range, like a drone or some helicopter that just pops up, then you do spot defense. So obviously you’re not going to be taking out ballistic missiles or cruise missiles with a shoulder-fired missile, but you could take out a jet, for example, or a helicopter or a large drone.”

Krapivnik emphasized the importance of coordination between systems, explaining that Iran’s air defense relies on real-time communication across layers.

“It’s integrated not just because it has multiple layers — it’s because the radar systems and the systems themselves are communicating. So if it failed to make contact or failed to destroy the object on one layer, it passes that information off to the next layer that engages, that passes off to the next layer that engages, and so on down to the point where either they destroy it at some point or it blows up.”

He also pointed out historical performance issues that influenced system design.

“By the way, the 12 Tomahawks Trump fired into Syria had a 33% failure rate to detonate. There were four warheads that were found non-detonated. A bad batch, I don’t know. But if that says the same thing about most of them, then the US has even bigger problems.”

Russian and Chinese contributions

Krapivnik detailed Russian contributions, noting the delivery of aircraft and reestablishment of Iran’s air defense networks.

“Russia came back, built a reintegrated system, and over the last six months trained up Su-35 pilots and delivered Su-35 fighters — which outrange, by the way, the F-35s, even though it’s a generation 4++ fighter versus the generation 5 fighter that the F-35 represents.”

Chinese contributions, he explained, include high-resolution radar and satellite-linked early warning systems.

“The Chinese are bringing in their integrated radar systems, which include very tight-beamed, low-wavelength sections that can pick up — integrated with the satellite systems — anything within, I think, 500 to 600 kilometers outside of Iran. So anything that the US or Israel is launching is already being picked up and gives them enough time to start reacting to it.”

On response time, he said, “If you figure a cruise missile is flying at 1,000 kilometers an hour, for example, you still have about 30 minutes to react before it’s in your airspace, which is actually a lot of time for anti-aircraft systems. Stealth aircraft are not invisible — they are very hard on radar. The hope is that they’re over target or somewhere close to target by the time the radar system picks them up, or somebody visually picks them up.”

He cited historical examples of successful radar-guided defense: “Which is, by the way, how the Serbs took out several American aircraft — B-1s. They put circles around of people with radios, and they visually saw them coming in because they kept using the same flight corridor. ‘Because they’re invisible.’ Well, no, they’re not. With the radios that communicated back, they got taken out with an S-300 or an S-200 system because they were able to lock on to them almost point blank.”

Krapivnik highlighted the potential shock effect on foreign forces: “Now, the US planners are writing it off. ‘It’s not really capable. They’re not going to be able to do anything.’ There’s a lot of bravado that has never been tested. So I think there’s going to be a very big shock and surprise for US, Israeli, and NATO forces if they start initiating contact.”

Krapivnik stressed that these capabilities were absent during prior US strikes in the region.

“No, the S-400s were not. And the decapitation strike at the beginning actually did damage quite a bit — at least some, we don’t know exactly how much — of the radars and some of the anti-aircraft systems. They killed key officers that would have been in charge of getting all that operational. Plus the Chinese systems, the multi-phase radar systems, were not there.”

“Over the last six months, this has been brought in, set up, and integrated. We’ll see how well it’s integrated. Combat is the ultimate test when your life is on the line. But if they’re as integrated as they may be, one thing that’s going to happen is — China, Russia, and Iran signed a trilateral alliance too.

“If this integration works, we may be seeing this all over the Russian border areas or the Chinese border areas — China using Russian S-300s, S-400s, S-500s, the S-550s that are coming out right now, and Russia using the Chinese radar systems, Iran both. So this could be a very big game changer, this synthesis of these two systems. We’ll see.”

Krapivnik warned of the potential dangers to American forces stationed in the region. “Even in a war between Iran and Israel, these THAAD systems will get hit, and then Americans are dead because they’re manning it,” he said.

He cautioned that as many as 1,500 American troops could become casualties defending Israel in a conflict with Iran.

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