Explainer: How is Trump’s 20-point Gaza ‘plan’ dangerously tilted in Israel’s favor 

By Hamid Javadi 

US President Donald Trump on Monday unveiled a 20-point proposal for post-war Gaza that is dangerously skewed in favor of the Israeli regime and ignores Palestinian realities. 

At its core, the plan demands Hamas disarm within 72 hours of a ceasefire, release all captives, and accept a phased Israeli troop withdrawal.

But here’s the catch: there’s no binding commitment to end the military occupation, no clear roadmap for Palestinian sovereignty or right to self-determination of Palestinians and no guarantee that Israel won’t resume its genocidal aggression once its captives are returned.

The much-hyped “plan” that has been welcomed by a group of Muslim countries demands Palestinian surrender without offering sovereignty, envisions the so-called economic development built on displacement, and leaves the door open for continued Israeli occupation.

Trump, who has long eyed Gaza as waterfront property on the Mediterranean, touted the proposal as “a peace plan,” but beneath its diplomatic gloss lies a blueprint that has been designed keeping in view long-term Israeli and American interests.

Under the deal, Israel would release over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences, in exchange for all 48 Israeli captives held by Hamas — both living and deceased — within 72 hours of a ceasefire taking effect.

How does Hamas or Palestinians appear in Trump’s plan?

The proposal, which has grabbed headlines in world media in the past two days, calls for the Hamas resistance movement to relinquish all governing roles in Gaza and lay down its weapons, a condition the group has previously ruled out unless a sovereign Palestinian state is established and the aspirations of Palestinians are taken into account.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he agreed to the plan at a press conference with Trump at the White House on Monday, even as Israeli regime forces continued to rain down bombs on Palestinians across Gaza.

However, speaking to Israeli media later, Netanyahu ruled out the military withdrawal, saying that it “is not going to happen.” It came even before Hamas’ official reaction to the plan.

Hamas’s negotiating team said it was studying the plan. However, a Hamas official told Reuters that Trump’s proposal was “completely biased to Israel” and imposed “impossible conditions” that aimed to eliminate the resistance group, a longtime objective of Netanyahu.

“What Trump has proposed is the full adoption of all Israeli conditions, which do not grant the Palestinian people or the residents of the Gaza Strip any legitimate rights,” the Palestinian official said on condition of anonymity.

While Hamas has frequently said it would welcome any initiative that ends the genocidal war on Gaza — which has killed more than 66,000 since October 2023, mostly women and children — it has every reason to be skeptical.

Last time Hamas leaders were reviewing Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire, Israeli warplanes bombed their headquarters in Qatar, a key mediator in negotiations between the Palestinian resistance movement and the Tel Aviv regime.

So, while Netanyahu has endorsed Trump’s new proposal, he has rejected the only two terms in the plan that could give Hamas a reason to accept the deal: the withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces (though conditional and gradual) and the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state.

What does the plan say about Israeli occupation?

A day after he gave his backing to Trump’s plan, Netanyahu said Israeli forces would remain in most of Gaza.

“We will recover all our hostages, alive and well, while the (Israeli military) will remain in most of the Gaza Strip,” he said in a video statement on Tuesday.

This isn’t the only point of friction. Netanyahu also said he would never allow the creation of a Palestinian state, yet the White House document includes language about a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood” if the deal is fully implemented.

“It’s not written in the agreement,” Netanyahu claimed, saying that Israel would “strongly oppose” such a move. He insisted that Trump shared this view.

This is a nonstarter for Palestinians. As Ziyad al-Nakhalah, leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, put it, “Israel is trying to impose through the United States what it was unable to achieve through war.”

What does Netanyahu want in Gaza?

Netanyahu appears to be trying to have it both ways: Publicly embracing the deal to pressure Hamas, while privately rejecting its most fundamental terms.

It’s a familiar tactic. The Israeli prime minister, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, has a track record of endorsing negotiations and ceasefire proposals, and at the same time making contradictory statements to kill the momentum.

Captive families, humanitarian groups, and even some Israeli regime officials have accused Netanyahu of prolonging the war for political gains. Hamas says the Israeli prime minister has used negotiations as a smokescreen for continued genocide in Gaza.

In February, Israel kept stalling the second phase of a ceasefire agreement that had already begun by violating terms related to troop withdrawal and humanitarian aid delivery.

Trump’s latest proposal does not address the root causes of the protracted issue — namely, the occupation and the apartheid oppression of the Palestinian people.

How does Trump’s plan address displacement?

The plan is largely driven by Trump’s desire to build a Dubai-style wonderland on the wasteland of Gaza. Though the plan claims “no one will be forced to leave Gaza,” Trump’s vision for Gaza — as publicly announced in the past — is premised on the forced displacement of the native populace.

The more Palestinians are forcibly removed from their land, the cheaper the project becomes to implement.

A reconstruction and economic blueprint for Gaza, published by The Washington Post, estimates that $23,000 will be saved for every Palestinian who leaves. That amounts to half a million dollars in savings for every one percent of the Gaza population that relocates.

Trump had previously floated the idea that he would send the US military into Gaza to clear the territory of its residents by force if necessary. Those remarks sparked a fierce global backlash.

The White House text says, “a Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East.”

“A special economic zone will be established, with preferred tariff and access rates to be negotiated with participating countries,” it specifies.

What is the role of Tony Blair in Trump’s plan?

That’s where former British Prime Minister Tony Blair also enters the frame. As part of Trump’s plan, Gaza will be governed by “a temporary technocratic committee,” made up of Palestinians and international experts, supervised by a new transitional body called the “Board of Peace.”

That board will be headed and chaired by Trump himself, with other members and heads of state, including Blair.

Blair is back in business once again, nearly two decades after he presented a 34-page document that outlined a “corridor for peace and prosperity,” which envisioned an agro-industrial park in the occupied West Bank.

Blair promised at the time that more such packages would be unveiled over time. He was forced to resign from office later largely as a result of the Iraq War. He has reportedly been advising the White House about Trump’s latest plan for Gaza.

Blair has reportedly been in contact with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to work out the details.  His role in Trump’s plans for Gaza has been criticized by Palestinians and advocates for Palestinian rights across the world.

Earlier this year, the Tony Blair Institute supported a “Trump Riviera” and an “Elon Musk Smart Manufacturing Zone” as part of a post-war plan for Gaza.

The plan included paying half a million Palestinians to leave their homelands to create room for private investors to develop Gaza into a money-making tourist hub.

What did Trump tell Hamas?

Trump issued an ultimatum of “three to four days” to Hamas on Tuesday to respond to his proposal. The US president threatened that he would let Israel “go and do what they have to do” in Gaza if Hamas rejects the deal.

“They could do it pretty easily,” he claimed.

Hamas is still reviewing the proposal. But with Netanyahu signaling that Israel won’t accept the deal’s core conditions, the path to peace remains as murky as ever.

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