By Ali Zeraatpisheh

US President Donald Trump is heading into the November 3 midterm elections with his political coalition under growing pressure, as rising living costs, controversial foreign policy decisions, and open disagreements within the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement threaten to end his Republican honeymoon.

Polling has revealed widespread dissatisfaction with his economic record, while divisions over the war with Iran and handling of Israel’s genocidal war in Palestine have exposed deep tensions between Trump's policies and the conservative base that helped return him to the White House.

At the same time, Republican candidates in competitive races are increasingly distancing themselves from the president, raising questions about whether his endorsement remains an electoral advantage or has become a political liability.

As Democrats steadily gain ground in congressional polling, growing fractures within Trump's coalition put Republican control of Congress at risk and expose the limits of his influence over the party.

Why are the cost of living and Trump's economic policies angering voters?

Trump returned to the White House promising to lower prices, restore the American economy, and make life more affordable, but approaching midterm elections have exposed a growing gap between those promises and the financial pressures facing millions of households.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on October 9 found that 78% of Americans blamed the rising cost of living on Trump's hard-nosed policies, including 64% of Republicans and 76% of independents.

The same poll found that 68% of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of inflation, while 57% of Republicans said prices were rising faster than their paychecks.

Trump's tariffs have become a central source of economic frustration because they increase the cost of imported products and materials.

A Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey published in October found that 81% of Americans believed tariffs had harmed the cost of living, including 62% of Republicans.

Higher gasoline prices have added to the pressure, with the war against Iran contributing to the increase, while expensive housing, groceries and other everyday necessities continue to weigh on household budgets.

The political damage is reflected in voters' priorities, as a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late August found that 47% of registered voters considered the cost of living the single most important factor in deciding their midterm vote, while 71% disapproved of Trump's handling of the issue.

Trump's economic difficulties are also reaching Republican voters who supported his return to office, with approval of his handling of the cost of living among Republicans falling from 70% in January to 44% in September, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

The consequences could be severe for Republicans in competitive districts, where voters struggling with food, fuel and housing costs may not be willing to overlook the administration's economic record simply because they support the party's other policies.

How has the aggression against Iran divided the MAGA movement?

Trump built much of his political appeal on the promise that he would end America's costly foreign wars and stop Washington from dragging the country into new wars, but the war against Iran has placed that promise under serious strain ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly presented himself as the candidate of peace, contrasting his approach with the prolonged wars associated with previous administrations and promising to prioritize American interests over foreign military commitments.

For many MAGA supporters, the appeal was not simply Trump's tough rhetoric but his promise that the United States would stop spending American lives and public money on wars that offered little benefit to ordinary Americans.

The unprovoked and illegal war against Iran has therefore created a direct conflict between Trump's campaign message and his actions as president.

The contradiction became even clearer in June, when Trump rejected the suggestion that the war violated his campaign message, telling NBC's Meet the Press, “First of all, I did not guarantee no war,” despite repeatedly presenting himself as the candidate who would prevent new wars.

One of the most prominent critics was Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former Republican congresswoman and once-fervent Trump ally, who denounced the administration for abandoning its promises of “No More Foreign Wars, No More Regime Change” and putting America last.

Conservative media figures also challenged the decision, with Tucker Carlson condemning the attack and warning against drawing the United States into another Middle Eastern military misadventure.

Other right-wing commentators argued that voters had supported Trump to focus on domestic problems rather than another war.

The consequences extend beyond conservative media, as a September report found that several Republican candidates had begun calling for an end to the war while avoiding direct criticism of Trump.

For Republicans, the risk is that voters who supported Trump because he promised to end foreign wars may stay home or withdraw their support, particularly if the war continues.

How has Trump's handling of Israel deepened political divisions?

Trump's close alliance with Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu has exposed another fault line within the MAGA movement.

Traditional pro-Israel Republicans increasingly face younger conservatives and anti-interventionists who question why Washington remains so deeply committed to Israel.

The divide challenges Trump's “America First” message, as observers argue that his administration has placed the regime ahead of domestic priorities and the promise to keep the United States out of costly overseas wars.

A Pew Research Center survey published in April found that 57% of Republicans aged 18 to 49 viewed Israel unfavorably.

The same survey found that 55% of Americans lacked confidence in Trump's ability to make good decisions about US-Israel relations.

The growing disagreement threatens to become a lasting problem for Republicans, forcing candidates to balance support for Israel with voters who want Washington to spend less money overseas and concentrate on economic problems at home.

Why are Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump?

As the November 3 midterm elections approach, Republican candidates in competitive races are increasingly trying to separate their campaigns from Trump, reflecting fears that the president's unpopularity could cost the party control of Congress.

A Reuters review published on October 7 found that 41 of 62 Republican candidates in closely contested House and Senate races had diverged from Trump on policy or played down their ties to him.

The review found that 23 candidates had publicly broken with Trump on specific policies, including 12 who challenged his handling of the Iran war, while 12 candidates removed his name, image or endorsements from their campaign websites.

In Florida, Representative Maria Elvira Salazar criticized Trump's immigration policies for going too far, while Michigan Senate candidate Michael Rogers called for an end to the trade dispute with Canada.

In Iowa, Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks broke with Trump by voting to limit his war powers over Iran after previously opposing similar measures.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, published October 26, put Trump's approval rating at 32% and showed Democrats leading Republicans 47% to 36% among registered voters on the congressional ballot question, giving vulnerable Republicans strong reasons to worry about the president's impact on their races.

How much has Trump's grip on the Republicans weakened?

Trump has transformed the Republican Party around his personality cult, political language and MAGA, but new polling suggests that the movement's hold over Republican voters is no longer as strong as it was when he returned to power.

A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll conducted in August found that identification with MAGA among Republicans had fallen by nine percentage points since March, indicating that voters were becoming less willing to associate themselves with Trump's political movement.

The decline is significant because MAGA has served as more than a campaign slogan, becoming a test of loyalty within the party and helping Trump marginalize Republicans who challenged his leadership or opposed his agenda.

A separate Marquette Law School poll found that the share of Republicans favorable toward the MAGA movement had dropped from 88% in February 2025 to 73% in October 2026.

The danger for Trump is that his political authority depends heavily on maintaining the belief that he represents the future of the Republican Party, and declining identification with MAGA could give other conservative figures more room to challenge his direction.

The November midterms will provide an important test of whether Trump's influence can still mobilize enough voters to protect Republican power, or whether the movement he built has become a liability for a party increasingly concerned about its future beyond his presidency.