Exports of chemical fertilizers from West Asia have fallen by roughly 70 to 75 percent amid the ongoing US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, severely tightening global supplies of sulfur, urea and phosphate fertilizers and raising fresh concerns over food production and inflation worldwide, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler shows.

Shipments from the region dropped to just 994,000 tons in September, compared with 3.41 million tons in the same month a year earlier, according to Madeleine Overgaard, senior manager of agriculture data at Kpler.

She warned that export volumes are likely to remain near these subdued levels through the end of the year unless the regional security situation improves.

The sharp decline stems directly from the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that has remained largely closed to commercial traffic since the United States and the Israeli regime launched their unprovoked attacks on Iran on February 28.

Ships attempting to transit the strait continue to face risks, leading to hesitation among vessel owners and charterers. Saudi Arabia’s attempts to move fertilizers overland by truck to its Red Sea ports have proven insufficient to offset the losses.

The Persian Gulf region accounts for 25 to 30 percent of global sulfur production and up to 50 percent of seaborne sulfur trade — virtually all of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For urea, the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, the Gulf represents only 10 to 12 percent of global production but commands 30 to 40 percent of seaborne trade.

China and India, the largest producers, largely consume their output domestically, leaving Persian Gulf suppliers to dominate the merchant market. Key exporters include the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with major importers such as India heavily reliant on these flows for rice and wheat production.

The war, which saw the assassination of senior Iranian leaders and strikes on Iranian territory, prompted Tehran to assert control over the strait in legitimate self-defense. This has also affected liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments -- a critical feedstock for fertilizer production -- with Qatari facilities having been damaged in the early stages of the war. Oil prices surged above $120 a barrel at the peak and remain elevated.

Analysts warn that fertilizer deficits experienced today are likely to translate into smaller harvests and higher food inflation next year. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index rose in September, with crop-based commodities including cereals, vegetable oils and sugar all increasing.

Farmers in countries such as India have already faced pressure from disrupted raw material supplies, while alternative suppliers including China and Russia have only partially filled the gap, and at higher cost.

Iran, a major producer of ammonia and urea with significant capacity at complexes such as Pardis in Asaluyeh, sits at the heart of this strategic chokepoint.

Roughly a third of global urea trade normally transits waters under Iranian control. The current shortages underscore the wider consequences of the US-Israeli aggression, which has strangled not only energy flows but also the fertilizers essential to feeding the world.

Global markets remain vulnerable as long as the imposed war continues and legitimate shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed. Restoring stability requires an end to the aggression against Iran and recognition of Tehran’s sovereign rights in its adjacent waters.