Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that outside forces are working to break up Canada so they can “own us,” as oil-rich Alberta prepares to vote on whether to begin the legal process toward separation.

Speaking at a pro-Canada rally in Calgary on Thursday, Carney urged Albertans to reject separation, warning that the vote comes at a time of growing global instability and heightened pressure on Canada from the US.

“This referendum comes at the worst possible time,” Carney told the crowd, adding, “The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us.”

Although Carney did not name US President Donald Trump directly in those remarks, his warning came amid Trump's repeated threats to make Canada the 51st US state.

Trump’s tariffs and annexation rhetoric have strained relations between the two longstanding neighbors, prompting Carney to stress that Canada must reduce its dependence on the US.

Alberta’s vote on Monday will determine whether the provincial government should begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation from Canada, rather than immediate independence.

Alberta has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves and is a major contributor to Canada’s energy sector.

Supporters of separation believe that the province’s economic interests and energy wealth are not adequately represented by the federal government in Ottawa.

Carney urged voters not to treat the referendum as a way to send a message to the federal government, warning that separation could lead to prolonged uncertainty and division.

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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote but opposes separation, emphasized that “Canada can still work … We just need to make some changes.”

The separatist movement has gained traction since the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests, which began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers before expanding into a wider protest against pandemic restrictions and the federal government.

Separatist organizers argue that the referendum could strengthen Alberta’s position in negotiations with Ottawa, even if it does not ultimately lead to independence.

Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide, dismissed Carney’s commitments to the province as “pinky promises.”

The dispute has also highlighted how Trump’s threats and tariff war have affected Canadian politics, with Daniel Béland, a political science professor, describing Carney’s growing appeal in traditionally conservative Alberta as “highly unusual.”

Béland said Trump’s tariff war and threats to make Canada the 51st US state had produced a “Trump effect,” rallying Canadians around their national leadership, including in Alberta.