The European Union could reportedly face a natural gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic meters this winter, equivalent to around seven percent of its demand, as depleted reserves, constrained global supplies, and reduced Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports increase pressure on energy markets.

The potential deficit could expose households and industries to higher prices and force reductions in consumption if additional supplies proved insufficient, according to reports provided respectively on Thursday and Friday by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) and the Institution for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a United States-based organization.

EU gas storage levels have fallen to just above 70 percent, their lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011. High prices have encouraged traders to sell gas during summer rather than store it for winter, leaving the bloc with a smaller buffer against supply disruptions.

Ana Jaller-Makarewicz, IEEFA’s lead European energy analyst, told US website Politico that the depleted reserves leave the bloc “‘with less of a buffer’ against global supply disruptions, leaving it ‘vulnerable to price spikes.’”

The gloomy predictions come amid Iran’s continued closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz that has overwhelmingly affected global energy markets.

Iran closed the waterway following the launch of the latest round of unprovoked American-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic on February 28.

The Islamic Republic and the United States agreed on a 60-day reopening period as part of a Pakistan-mediated memorandum of understanding in June, but American violations forced the country to re-establish the closure.

Russian LNG restrictions compound supply pressures

An EU-wide ban on long-term supply contracts for Russian LNG, scheduled to take effect in January, will reduce European gas imports by an additional seven billion cubic meters, according to IEEFA.

Russian gas has historically helped accommodate fluctuations in winter demand. “Now Europe depends on storage to get through winter,” it said.

Meanwhile, winter gas demand has increased over the past two years, while imports have remained broadly flat. Net withdrawals from EU storage reached 22.6 billion cubic meters in January 2026, up from 18.8 billion in January 2025 and 17.8 billion in January 2024.

Additional imports could prove costly

Replacing lost supplies with LNG would cost an estimated additional €3 billion ($3.3 billion) at current prices, 12 percent more than the same volumes would have cost a year earlier, according to IEEFA. US LNG production is also near full capacity, limiting the scope for additional exports, Jaller-Makarewicz said.

ENTSO-G warned that storage could fall to 11 percent in a cold winter, even with “optimal” LNG imports. Restoring reserves to 30 percent by winter’s end would require curtailing or withholding volumes equivalent to seven percent of demand.

Higher prices may attract LNG cargoes to Europe from Asia, said Laurent Ruseckas, a senior gas market analyst at S&P Global Energy.

“There is not much demand to destroy in Europe,” he added, noting that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia had already destroyed 20 percent of the bloc’s industrial demand. “And it didn't come back.”