Cartels or conquest? The phony US ‘war on drugs’ masks a Venezuelan oil grab

By Mohammad Molaei

In the muddy waters of the Caribbean, where the ghosts of imperial interventions past, from Grenada's 1983 “rescue mission” to Panama's 1989 Noriega ouster, linger like unexploded ordnance, the war-mongering US posture toward Venezuela unveils a familiar playbook of hegemonic overreach.

Under the guise of the so-called “Operation Southern Spear,” framed as an “anti-narcotics campaign” targeting the nebulous Cartel de los Soles, the Trump administration's military buildup echoes the disingenuous pretexts that justified the disastrous 2003 Iraq invasion, where non-existent weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) masked a thirst for oil dominance.

As of last week, with the Nimitz-class USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group steaming into waters near Venezuela, accompanied by a nuclear-powered submarine, Reaper drones, and B-52 bombers staging from reactivated bases in Puerto Rico, this deployment, encompassing over 14,000 personnel and representing a staggering 10-12% of US naval assets, betrays not a genuine interdiction effort but a calculated prelude to “regime change.”

What is at stake? Venezuela's crown jewels: 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves – the world's largest – concentrated in the Orinoco Belt, alongside vast lithium deposits exceeding 10 million tons in the Guayana region, critical for the electric vehicle boom amid a fracturing petrodollar system.

President Nicolas Maduro's pivot to BRICS+, formalized with observer status in July 2025 and bolstered by Sino-Russian barter pacts, threatens to sideline American energy giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron, who lost lucrative concessions post-2017 sanctions.

The $50 million bounty on Maduro himself, doubled from $15 million in August 2025 by Attorney General Pamela Bondi, extends to $15 million rewards for key allies like Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and PSUV heavyweight Diosdado Cabello, incentivizing defections and CIA-orchestrated disruptions in a bid to fracture the Chavismo coalition and pave the way for corporate reclamation.

The genesis of this contrived crusade lies in Washington's long-standing narrative of Venezuelan so-called “narco-statehood,” amplified through the US Treasury Department's July 2025 designation of the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization.

They claim, without evidence, that a syndicate of high-ranking Venezuelan officials, including military brass, is facilitating cocaine flows from Colombian FARC remnants through ports like Puerto Cabello and La Guaira to US streets. The cartel's moniker is derived from the sun insignia on Venezuelan generals' epaulets, wielded as a propaganda cudgel since indictments in the Southern District of New York dating back to 2020.

US officials claim, without evidence, that the group has flooded American markets with over 30 tons of seized cocaine, including 7 tons directly linked to Maduro, collaborating with Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel and Venezuela's own Tren de Aragua gang, which has expanded into US cities like Denver and Chicago.

Yet regional analysts from think tanks like the International Crisis Group and the Newlines Institute contest this portrayal, arguing the “cartel” is less a centralized mafia than a decentralized network of opportunistic corruption, exacerbated by US sanctions that have cratered Venezuela's GDP by 75 percent since 2013, forcing officials into gray-market survival tactics.

Observers point to the CIA's own historical entanglements in Latin American drug trades, from Contra cocaine in the 1980s to recent revelations of agency ties to Venezuelan generals, as evidence of selective outrage.

Indeed, the cartel's alleged operations pale beside the US-backed Colombian cocaine surge, where production hit record highs in 2024 despite billions in Plan Colombia aid.

This hypocrisy underscores the true agenda: leveraging narco-terrorism accusations to justify extraterritorial kinetics, including over 25 documented missile strikes on Venezuelan-flagged vessels since September 2025, per Pentagon logs, while eyeing the Orinoco's heavy crude once exported at 3 million bpd, now throttled to under 800,000 bpd, with Rosneft and CNPC stepping in via debt-for-oil swaps that bypass SWIFT and erode dollar supremacy.

The US military array in the Caribbean, meticulously orchestrated from the Pentagon's Joint Interagency Task Force South in Key West, Florida, forms a multifaceted expeditionary force tailored for littoral dominance but fraught with vulnerabilities in a contested asymmetric battlespace.

At its core sails the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the US Navy's most advanced carrier, with its electromagnetic catapults launching Carrier Air Wing 8's 75+ aircraft: squadrons of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets for air superiority, EA-18G Growlers jamming Venezuelan radars, and E-2D Hawkeyes providing over-the-horizon surveillance.

Supported by 5,000 sailors and Marines, the carrier can surge 150 sorties daily, integrating with three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), USS Lassen (DDG-82), and USS Gravely (DDG-107), armed with Aegis systems for ballistic-missile defense and 96-cell VLS launchers stocked with Tomahawk cruise missiles (1,000+ mile range) for precision strikes on Caracas' command centers.

Amphibious elements include the USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) and USS San Antonio (LPD-17), capable of deploying 1,800 Marines via MV-22 Ospreys and LCACs for beachhead seizures along Venezuela's 2,800 km coastline.

Sub-surface, a Virginia-class SSN, possibly the USS Delaware (SSN-791), prowls with Mark 48 torpedoes and Tomahawk variants for anti-shipping and ISR.

Aerial reinforcements feature B-52 Stratofortresses and B-1B Lancers forward-deployed from Andersen AFB, Guam, to the reopened Roosevelt Roads Naval Station in Puerto Rico, shuttered since 2004 but reactivated in August 2025, amid five US operational sites on the island hosting 12 F-35C Lightning IIs for stealthy SEAD missions.

MQ-9 Reaper drones, based in Curaçao and Aruba under Dutch accords, offer persistent Hellfire-armed overwatch, while RC-135 Rivet Joints collect SIGINT from offshore orbits.

This force, totaling 14,000-15,000 personnel per CSIS and Newsweek mappings, links via secure datalinks for joint fires, but its 1,000+ nautical mile span exposes supply lines: daily fuel demands top 150,000 gallons, vulnerable to Venezuelan speedboat swarms or Iranian-supplied mines in the Gulf of Venezuela, recalling the USS Cole’s 2000 debacle.

Opposing this juggernaut, Venezuela's Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB), while technologically outclassed, embody a doctrine of “total popular defense” refined through alliances with strong allies like Russia, Iran, and Cuba, prioritizing attrition and guerrilla resilience over symmetric confrontation.

According to the 2025 Global Firepower Index, ranking 50th with a PwrIndx of 0.8882, the FANB fields 125,000 active troops, surging to 200,000 via recent mobilizations announced November 11, 2025, including the 4.5-8 million-strong Bolivarian paramilitary civilian irregulars trained in urban ambushes and IED fabrication under the “Civic-Military Union.”

Air defenses anchor the posture: S-300VM Antey-2500 systems (200 km range, Mach 7.5 intercepts) around Caracas and Maracay, nine Buk-M2E batteries (40 km envelopes) for medium-altitude coverage, and the newly showcased Tor-M2E short-range SAMs integrated with ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, creating layered “bubbles” against low-flying threats.

Over 5,000 Igla-S MANPADS, dispersed to local units, threaten helicopters in barrio chokepoints, while 18 operational Su-30MK2 Flankers armed with R-77 BVR missiles and Kh-31 anti-ship variants offer limited CAP, though sanctions have idled 50% for parts.

Ground assets include 92 T-72B1 tanks with Kontakt-5 ERA, 123 BMP-3 IFVs for mechanized thrusts in the Llanos, and coastal batteries of Iranian C-802 (180 km) and Russian K-300P Bastion missiles to deny amphibious landings.

Recent “Sovereign Shield” drills, involving 500,000 participants in September 2025, rehearsed hybrid tactics: cyber intrusions via Russian Krasukha-4 EW jammers, mine warfare in the Orinoco Delta’s mangroves, and guerrilla holdouts in the Andes’ fog-shrouded passes, drawing on Cuban advisors’ expertise from Angola’s 1980s campaigns.

Despite maintenance woes, desertions topping 20% annually, and fuel shortages, terrain favors defenders: the Amazon's malarial jungles and Caracas' vertical slums could turn US advances into protracted bloodlettings, as warned by former SOUTHCOM commander Adm. James Stavridis.

If “Operation Southern Spear” escalates beyond naval interdictions – 68% likelihood per RAND simulations updated in October 2025 – the arc risks mirroring Vietnam's quagmire, where initial “surgical” strikes spiral into endless insurgency amid global condemnation.

Phase one might feature CIA-backed decapitation: Reaper AGM-114s targeting Miraflores Palace or F-35 HARMs neutralizing S-300 radars, followed by Tomahawk barrages on Fuerte Tiuna's C2 nodes and Puerto Cabello's ports.

Maduro's survival, bolstered by underground bunkers and Cuban SIGINT, would activate “asymmetric response”: RPG-29 volleys in Catia's alleys, ambushes on highways, and speedboat “wolf packs” harassing carriers.

Jungle operations in Guayana, with indigenous alliances and malaria vectors, could bog down 100,000+ US troops, incurring 10,000+ casualties and $150 billion annual costs, per CSIS estimates incorporating VA burdens and munitions drawdown.

BRICS backlash intensifies the peril: Russian S-400 deliveries via Antonov airlifts and Chinese J-20 overflights under 2024 pacts could draw in hypersonic Kinzhal strikes, while Brazil's 200,000 border troops under CELAC edicts fracture OAS unity.

Latin solidarity, from Mexico's AMLO-era non-interventionism to Bolivia's lithium solidarity, fuels anti-US insurgencies, hastening de-dollarization as Venezuela's crypto-petro gains traction.

Unlike Panama's swift 1989 takedown (2,000 troops dead), this morass evokes Iraq's trillion-dollar folly, eroding US hegemony as allies waver amid domestic woes.

Beyond kinetics, the incursion's geo-economic ripples threaten to reshape hemispheric balances, amplifying perceptions of Yankee unreliability. Seizing Orinoco fields could spike global oil to $120/bbl short-term, but insurgent sabotage mirroring Nigeria's Delta militants would throttle output, benefiting OPEC+ rivals.

Lithium grabs risk alienating EV supply chains, with China's Ganfeng poised for retaliatory exclusions. Diplomatic fallout includes OIC condemnations and UNSC vetoes from Moscow and Beijing, while domestic US divisions echoing Vietnam protests could hamstring Trump's agenda amid midterm pressures.

In unraveling this Caribbean gambit, one perceives not inexorable US might but the fraying threads of a “superpower” in twilight, clutching at Venezuelan bounties to forestall a multipolar dawn.

Caracas' retort, forged in Bolívar's anvil, reminds that sovereignty endures not through arms alone but through the unyielding spirit of a populace versed in repelling empires – from Spanish yokes to Yankee yokes anew.

Mohammad Molaei is a Tehran-based military affairs analyst.

(The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Press TV)

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